Backlink Volume Estimation Methodology

This standardized process derives backlink density for U.S. municipal markets by combining sub-linear power-law scaling with industry-specific competition coefficients.

Population Drives Business and Website Competition

The larger the population, the more businesses exist. The more businesses there are, the more websites are created, and the more webpages compete for the same keywords. As population increases, competition naturally increases because more commercial entities target the same search demand.

Everyday Relevance Increases Industry Competition

The more a business is connected to everyday life, the more websites exist in that industry. As a result, competition becomes higher for some industries and lower for others. Industries serving daily or essential needs naturally generate more market participants and therefore more SEO competition.

Keyword Difficulty and Search Volume Define Effort

In SEO, ranking difficulty is often called Keyword Difficulty, which is calculated by considering both the number of pages on the web about a topic (keyword) and the number of people searching for it (search volume). Tools like Semrush and Ahrefs follow similar principles when measuring keyword difficulty and search volume. However, they do not explicitly state that both keyword difficulty and search volume together determine the level of resources and effort required to rank on the first SERP.

Industry Examples: Demand vs. Competition

If it is an HVAC business, nearly every household may need it, so the business opportunity is high. Because this opportunity is high and the entry barrier is comparatively low, the number of HVAC businesses is also high, which increases the number of competing websites. In contrast, if it is Aerospace Engineering, only a small portion of the population is directly involved and there is a high knowledge barrier. The number of experts, businesses, and websites is low, and search volume is also low, resulting in lower ranking difficulty. However, this does not mean that every sophisticated business has low difficulty. Consider a gun decoration service: how often do people search for it online, and when was the last time you saw such a business? In such cases, low competition is mainly due to low demand.

Core Principle: Search Volume × Pages on the Internet

As a systematic algorithm, search engines and LLMs understand high-ticket and low-ticket industries, but ranking difficulty ultimately depends on the relationship between search volume and the number of pages present on the internet. The higher both variables are, the greater the effort required to rank.

Local Competition and Backlink Accumulation

The more competitive your niche is in your city, the more “votes” (authority signals) you need. Most websites that appear frequently in search results are at least 10 years old, and so are their link-building efforts. With more time and consistent effort, they accumulate more backlinks and brand mentions, and the number of mentions does make a difference in search appearances.

The table shows that as population increases, the required number of backlinks also increases within the same verticals, with New York consistently needing significantly more backlinks than Brooklyn.